Alejandro Arce — home Thinking in Public
No. 107 · AI

Make the decision with data. Then hand it to the AI

Line illustration: a simple bar chart on a desk beside a coffee cup and a small robot hand reaching for a paper.

The key to operating AI is making data-driven decisions. When you do that consistently, you'll be able to hand those decisions off to the AI over time, focus on brand and vibe things, and allow the data to operate autonomously.

Here is a small business example. Every Monday you move your ad budget to whichever ad brought in customers at the lowest cost that week. Do that for a couple of months and the rule is written down. Then hand it to the AI: it checks the numbers, moves the budget, and tells you what it did. You spend your time on the photos, the tone and the offer.

This already exists

Google Ads has a bid strategy called Target CPA. You set the average cost you will pay for a customer action, and the system sets each bid to get as many of them as possible near that cost. Google's own example is a $10 target. The rule is the owner's. The machine runs it.

That is the same move as the Monday example above, handed over once the rule is clear.

Write the rule first

Pick one number, such as cost per customer. Write the rule in one sentence. Run it by hand every week until you trust it. Then give the AI the sentence, the numbers, and one more instruction: tell me what you changed and why.

Read that report each week. If a decision surprises you, the rule was missing something. Add it to the sentence. Rules written down are also what you put in your bank.

Make the decision with data. Then hand it off.

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