Thinking in Public
GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic could save US airlines as much as $580 million a year in fuel. That is the estimate from Jefferies, a financial services firm, for the four biggest airlines (The New York Times, via West Hawaii Today). It assumes the average passenger weighs 10 percent less (Airline Geeks).
People on GLP-1s eat less and weigh less, so planes burn less fuel. Snack companies lose money and airlines win. When a problem gets fixed, the money moves.
You see it everywhere.
Airlines win. Snack companies and Walmart lose. Walmart said in 2023 that shoppers who fill GLP-1 prescriptions at its pharmacies buy fewer units and slightly fewer calories (NBC News), and a Cornell study found chips, baked goods and cookies took some of the largest drops (Food Dive). I think the drop in drinking is related to GLP-1s too. They kill your sugar cravings, so bars, restaurants and liquor stores lose. I wonder if GLP-1s will make skinny trendy, hotter than muscular. I doubt it.
Waymo and Swiss Re, the insurer, studied 25.3 million driverless miles and found 92 percent fewer bodily injury claims than human drivers (Waymo). So body shops, insurance lawyers and insurance companies make less money. Traffic tickets go down, and driving schools, DUI lawyers and traffic courts lose business. I think taxis are gone: self-driving cabs are already running in California (Waymo). Parking too, like airport parking. Why pay to park your car once self-driving happens? Car rentals lose too, and truck stops will likely die as well. And what about the car companies? Fewer crashes also means fewer organ donors. About 1 in 10 deceased organ donors in the US died in a motor vehicle crash (9.5 percent in 2024, down from 14.6 percent in 2014, per OPTN/SRTR), so I think the organ shortage gets worse.
Chegg, the homework help site, lost more than half a million subscribers after ChatGPT came out (Sherwood News, citing the Wall Street Journal).
Japan has so few babies that Oji Holdings, a Japanese paper and diaper maker, said in 2024 it would stop making baby diapers for Japan and focus on adult ones (Fortune). Gotta make money. Schools are planning to lose revenue because there are fewer kids. Most of Japan's private universities missed their enrollment targets in 2024 (Times Higher Education).
Digital cameras are hobby buys now. The phone is just as good.
It used to be a shot. The Wegovy pill went on sale in US pharmacies in January 2026 (NBC News, via Reuters), and Lilly's pill, Foundayo, followed in April (HFSA, reposting Lilly's release). I think a pill only grows how many people use GLP-1s. Goodbye candy lines, and sugary cocktails.
I think AI will hurt universities, because why would kids go to school for it?
The call centers in India and Central America, gone.
There is less dating. Kids are not dating, so I think the wedding market is going to drop.
I think private doctors are going to make less money. The watch is going to tell you what is wrong with you. Whether I have covid, for example, will be measured by my watch somehow.
Art is going to go through a unique shift. AI can make anything, especially online.
The AI Audit maps which of your problems AI can fix, before someone else fixes them for your customers.
Book the AI Audit