Is the economy going to drop again?

I've seen the economy drop and lift again, and this will be my third or fourth time. The first was the dot-com crash in 2000. Then the housing crisis in 2008. Then the COVID crash in 2020 (list of market crashes).

And right now we have prices that won't come down, plus wars and lost jobs through AI (Challenger, Gray & Christmas). And it will lift again, either next year or the year after.

Just because the stock market is growing doesn't mean society is growing. I think we've been affected in the cost of goods. Buy low, sell high. The low is almost here, and then something will happen, like the war in the Middle East will cease. Or in Russia. We'll find out.

What past drops looked like

The Nasdaq peaked on March 10, 2000 and fell 78% by October 2002 (dot-com bubble). The 2007 to 2009 recession cost US households $11.5 trillion, 17.3% of their net worth, and net worth took until the third quarter of 2012 to get back (Great Recession). In 2020 the S&P 500 fell 34% in about a month, from February 19 to March 23 (market crashes).

Each drop ended. The length changed: weeks in 2020, years in 2002 and 2012.

What the job numbers say now

Challenger's July 2026 report counted 33,429 announced US job cuts. AI was the leading reason for the fifth month in a row. Hiring plans for the year so far are up 25% on last year. This is my view of the cycle. I'm not a financial advisor. Decide your own rules while prices are calm.

And when it starts to rise, this is your moment to buy in: the stock market, real estate, Teslas.